Dementia the disease of the century

A new report has found that the number of Australians affected by dementia is expected to quadruple to more than 1.13 million people by 2050.

According to John Watkins, chief executive officer of Alzheimer’s Australia New South Wales (NSW), “Without a significant medical breakthrough, the number of Australians affected by dementia is expected to increase from 245,000 in 2009 to 591,000 in 2030 and again to a staggering 1,130,000 by 2050,” Mr Watkins said.

These figures are a dramatic increase from previous projections released in 2005. This rise is due to increases in the projections in the ageing population by the Australian Bureau of Statistics from up-to-date Census figures and increases reported by epidemiologists in the expected number of people with dementia in age groups, especially in those over the age of 85.

“In NSW, that figure is expected to increase from 84,000 in 2009 to 188,000 in 2030 and again to 341,000 by 2050.

“This year, every week there are more than 1,300 new cases of dementia in Australia.  By 2030 there will be more than 3,600 a week and by 2050, about 7,400 new cases each week. The dementia epidemic is here,” he said.

Dementia is fatal and as yet there is no cure.

The figures are contained in a report commissioned by Alzheimer’s Australia from Access Economics – Keeping Dementia Front of Mind: Incidence and Prevalence 2009 – 2050.

In the report, Access Economics has warned that the accelerating growth in the number of people with dementia will have dire consequences for the Australian health care system and the quality of life of Australians. It highlights the spiralling social and economic impact of dementia on a health and care system already under growing pressure.

Report author Lynne Pezzullo, Access Economics director and health analyst, said there was little recognition in the final report from the National Health and Hospital Reform Commission (NHHRC) of the challenge that the dementia epidemic represents to the health and care system.

“The Australian Government should keep dementia front of mind in considering its response to the NHHRC report,” Ms Pezzullo said.

“Within our lifetime, neurodegenerative diseases, and in particular dementia, will replace systemic disorders such as cardiovascular disease and cancer as major threats to Australian health and quality of life.

“By 2060 the report estimates that spending on dementia will outstrip that of any other health condition. It is projected to be $83 billion (in 2006-07 dollars) and will represent around 11% of the entire health and aged care sector spending,” she said.

Mr Watkins said the baby boomer bulge in the Australian population also means that the coming decade will see an acceleration of the impacts of ageing on dementia prevalence. 

“The first baby boomers turn 65 in 2010 and there will be 75,000 baby boomers with dementia by 2020,” Mr Watkins said.

“Dementia will be the disease of the century”.

It is also projected that the number of regional Australians with dementia will increase by over 350% between 2009 and 2050, to 449,000 – nearly double the total number of Australians with dementia today.

Professor Peter Schofield, chief executive officer of the Prince of Wales Medical Research Institute, said there were now realistic prospects both of identifying people earlier at risk of dementia and of therapeutic interventions that will delay dementia or slow its progression.

“But if that is to become a reality then significantly greater investment is needed in dementia research,” Professor Schofield said.