1 Million expected to live with dementia by 2050

Researchers from the University of Canberra found that by the middle of this century the number of people will rise to almost one million.

The new report Forecasting Dementia in 2050 has been described by its developers as “enough to shock people into action”.

The findings by The University of Canberra’s National Center for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM) are based on population growth, ageing and tracking factors for dementia in the population.

The research is important for government and care providers to plan for future demands on the health and aged care system.

Professor Laurie Brown, convenor of NATSEM, says “Dementia presents a significant burden of illness in the Australian community and it is accompanied by high social and economic costs. It is something that governments should be planning for already and setting those plans in motion.

“The burden of care most often falls on family members, with elderly partners or adult children taking on the role of primary care-giver. With one in five Australians being aged 65 or older by 2050, the impact of dementia on informal carers will be immense.

“It is important to know where people are likely to be living, so we can inform everything from urban planning for age friendly towns and cities to the construction of new aged care facilities and support for families involved in caring for older relatives with dementia,” Professor Brown says.

It is estimated there are currently 380,000 people living with dementia in Australia. According to Alzheimer’s Australia National President, Professor Graeme Samuel there are now two pieces of evidence that reinforce that dementia is set to rise to unacceptably high numbers, that will impact socially and economically on every community across Australia.

“The new report by NATSEM as well as the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ Causes of Death Report, indicate that dementia is set to rise exponentially and remains the second leading cause of death in Australia.

“These highlight why we need to ensure we have a coordinated and strategic response to curb the rising rates of dementia and provide support to those who are currently living with the condition, as well as the thousands more who will develop dementia by 2050.

“Equally important is our continued effort to research a cure for this debilitating condition,” Professor Samuel says.

The NATSEM report examines important contributing factors to dementia prevalence such as age, gender and lifestyle factors.

Alzheimer’s Australia National chief executive officer Carol Bennett says: “it is important that we can predict the impact dementia will have on communities and individuals into the future, in order to tailor our responses to meet demands.”